Let’s talk Heisman, college football’s iconic solo flex award. Born in 1935 in NYC’s Downtown Athletic Club, the DAC Trophy was renamed a year later to honor coach John Heisman. Heisman, known as an innovator whose career spanned more than 30 years, reshaped the game of football by rewriting the rule book to include key plays like the center snap and forward pass, changing the way the game would be played forever.
Today, the bronze trophy weighing 25 pounds and standing a little over one foot tall has morphed into college football’s most coveted achievement. Think legacy, NIL rocket fuel, and draft-day VIP access in one stiff-arm salute. History backs it up: the Heisman Trust notes that 60 of 86 eligible winners have gone in the NFL Draft’s first round, including 24 No. 1 overall picks. Translation: win this and your life moves to the fast lane. Sure, the favorites lead the way, but plenty of longshots are only one upset away from moving up in the rankings.
Everyone loves the underdog, right?
This is the year of volatility across the board, and the betting markets have been wild through five weeks. Dante Moore surged to favorite status after Oregon’s thriller at Penn State, while injuries and wobbly starts shuffled everyone else. That volatility is Sandman Sports playground and we are always looking to spill the tea. Here are the longer prices with significant runway, plus the vibe check on how each could crash the party. Odds snapshots reflect today across the big boards: FanDuel, DraftKings, and BetMGM where available.
Joey Aguilar, QB, Tennessee (+1300)
The SEC spoiler just outside the velvet rope. His Mississippi State drama-filled OT win and steady climb keep him in that liminal space just below the darlings zone. The record is clean enough, and he has SEC marquee slots remaining to strengthen his script. If he stacks turnover-free ball with a signature upset, he is instantly in the New York invite chatter.
Fernando Mendoza, QB, Indiana (+1300 to +1500)
Not a “bomb” like Arch but still priced outside the inner circle despite draft buzz and elite efficiency (73 percent completions, 16 TDs, 1 INT through five games). Indiana’s undefeated narrative plus stat dominance is a voter catnip combo. If you can still find the 14-15s, you are buying a Tier 1 profile at longshot rates.
Diego Pavia, QB, Vanderbilt (+1500 to +1800)
You want a true shocker? Vandy’s dual-threat rental has climbed fast, and a Week 6 head-to-head vs. Alabama ESPN GameDay edition is a neon audition. Pull the upset, put up numbers, and the narrative writes itself. From “nice story” to “no, really.” BetMGM and consensus shops show +1500 to +1800. This could be worth a few bones before the odds drop. Think of it as getting in early on JOBY.
Julian Sayin, QB, Ohio State (+1700 to +2000)
Jeremiah Smith is the Buckeye with helium, but if Sayin owns the big throws in November, voters will recalibrate who is driving the bus. With Penn State, UCLA, and Michigan ahead, the stage is available to shine. He is priced as a second fiddle, but the opportunity is to buy the pivot before the committee does.
Sam Leavitt, QB, Arizona State (+2000 to +2200)
Not everyone’s obvious choice for Heisman, he has been hovering in the teens and low 20s across books. The classic “we see it, but do we believe it” quarterback. His stats are talking though, with passing yards and completion percentage climbing each of the last three games. Longshots need runway and TV moments, and his schedule offers both. An explosive October and he jumps a tier.
Arch Manning, QB, Texas (+2000 to +5000)
Maybe more of an honorable mention, because yes, his stock cooled after a choppy September. But he is still the market’s most magnetic ticket. Books show him drifting into true longshot territory, which is an opportunity if Texas stabilizes and Arch strings together statement wins under the bright lights still ahead. Public money keeps him relevant; one red-letter Saturday and the bounce could be violent.
Why these tickets have life
Two things swing Heisman markets: prime-time moments and plot twists. This race has already delivered both with Dante Moore’s leap, Ty Simpson’s UGA stunner, and injuries to Mateer and early co-favorites. That churn compresses prices at the top and leaves oxygen for risers who have not had their viral Saturday yet. Simpson jumped from deep longshot to near-favorite in a week, a reminder of how fast this moves.
Where the numbers sit right now
FanDuel: Moore favored; Ty Simpson and Jeremiah Smith next; longshots like Arch, Aguilar, Pavia, and Leavitt trail with prices stretching into the +1300 to +5000 band depending on player and book.
BetMGM: Moore +750 favorite; Simpson around +1000; a deep middle of +1400 to +2500 houses our shock-the-field picks (Pavia, Aguilar, Sayin, Reed, Arch).
Helpful Hint: Do yourself a favor and compare odds across several books before locking in a wager. Securing the best number on a bet like this can mean the difference of hundreds on a winning ticket.
The game plan
You don’t need 10 tickets. Take two or three with distinct paths:
- Narrative rocket (Arch): national brand and marquee windows. True longshot.
- SEC chaos (Aguilar or Pavia): one upset equals oxygen mask.
- Stat bully (Mendoza): efficiency on an unbeaten team.
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